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Start with the interval, not the tonne

Two credits from the same field can trade at different prices if one carries a wider confidence interval. Buyers increasingly pay for the lower bound, not the mean.

That is why we publish both figures on every certificate and why narrow intervals, from more cores and more clean passes, are worth real money to a grower.

The four price drivers

Vintage year, interval width, registry and buffer share. Everything else, including the crop, is a story buyers tell afterwards.

Lab-dried soil from a Danube field core
A tonne in the hand: lab-dried soil from a Danube core.
The mean is a marketing number. The lower bound is the one that gets retired.

What the ladder looked like this year

Measured soil carbon traded in a band roughly twice as wide as modelled credits.

  • 2024 vintages with narrow intervals cleared at the top of the band
  • Registry choice moved price less than interval width did
  • Buffer share above 20% pushed buyers to ask for resampling

What to ask a seller

Ask for the interval, the sampling density, the number of clean passes and the buffer share. If any of the four is missing, the price is a guess.